Pioneer LogLewis & Clark College’s Student-Run Newspaper

Low standards: Admissions key to NCAA predictions

March 19, 2010

by Michael G. Richman

Filling out your bracket is always tough, especially when you are a senior in college and making any plans or choices about your future is terrifying. I waffled for a while, and then it hit me. I would fill out my bracket basing all my choices on the likelihood that I would be admitted to the institution in question. With a little help from my colleague Garik Lawson Asplund, I set about my quest to find the school I could get into with the least trouble and in turn this year’s national champion.

To be fair, I have no real evidence that any of these schools would allow me to attend. So, without doing any real research, I headed to collegeboard.com and started to look at the percentage of applicants admitted to each of the 64 teams in the tournament field. The logic here is simple: If your school is more likely than your opponent to admit ol’ MRich, then you advance. If not, you go home and grieve about not having lower admission standards.

While I wasn’t admitted to any schools during this process, I did learn some things along the way.  I learned that it is relatively easy to get into schools in the intermountain region of the United States. It’s harder to get into the University of Florida than I thought, and for whatever reason, Murray State University does not release statistics about its admission rates.

In my fail-safe system plan, it pays to be a 12 seed. I have three of them in my Final Four. It doesn’t pay to be a top seed. I see three of them going home on the first day, and only Kansas advancing. Of course, those Jayhawks will fall when they meet the pesky New Mexico State Aggies, who accept a shocking 96 percent of applicants. Even Kansas, which lets 91 percent of applicants into its institution, couldn’t match up. Congrats, Aggies, you’re in the Final Four.

The most compelling match-up in the east bracket is the first round showdown between University of Wisconsin and Wofford. The Badgers lost out by just one to Wofford, 58-57. When the Badgers lower their standards they’ll have a better shot at getting me to back them. Until then, they can go home and think about letting in more kids than some school no one has ever heard of in Spartanburg, SC. Montana and its 96 percent acceptance rate easily made it out of the east in the end. Go, Griz.

The south region proved to be the place with the toughest admission standards at the top and some bizarre victories throughout. That’s right Sam Houston State, my bracket puts you in the Sweet Sixteen. Sam Houston barely squeaked by Old Dominion in round two. Both Sam Houston and ODU let in 72 percent of applicants, but since Sam Houston is cheaper I feel like I would be more likely to go there, and thus they get the nod into the next round.

The south is highlighted by good schools like Cal, Notre Dame, Villanova and Dook (Duke) all places that would never let me attend. Obviously they all got sent home early with my formula. Somehow Utah State came out of this bracket. Turns out if you let in 98 percent of applicants you would probably let Michael G. in. So guess what your reward is Utah State: immortal fame in the Pioneer Log and a trip to the Final Four.
In the west, it was a romp. The University of Texas at El Paso lets in 99 percent of its applicants.

That’s one less than 100, for those of you keeping score at home. These guys would certainly admit your boy Mike. UTEP would probably give me a scholarship.  UTEP will probably call me after they get word of this article. Just kidding, no one reads the PioLog right before Spring Break when they are that close to Mexico.

In the end, my Final Four comes down to New Mexico State, UTEP, Utah State and Montana. Two teams with Aggies as mascots, two teams from the southwest and no one from east of the Mississippi. As it turns out, 96 percent acceptance rate was not good enough, so I said goodbye to Montana and NM State and it came down to UTEP (99 percent) and Utah State (98 percent).

There you have it. UTEP: your 2010 NCAA National Champions. Not what you expected, but guaranteed to win you your bracket pool, 99 percent guaranteed at least.